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24 May 2024
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Featured FRI Magazine article: Reducing the incidents of wildfires through hazard and risk mapping by Malcolm N Procter (FRI Vol 2 no 3)
FRI Magazine article: Reducing the incidents of wildfires through hazard and risk mapping by Malcolm N Procter (FRI Vol 2 no 3)
This week’s featured Fire and Rescue International magazine article is: Reducing the incidents of wildfires through hazard and risk mapping by Malcolm N Procter (FRI Vol 2 no 3). We will be sharing more technical/research/tactical articles from Fire and Rescue International magazine on a weekly basis with our readers to assist in technology transfer. This will hopefully create an increased awareness, providing you with hands-on advice and guidance. All our magazines are available free of charge in PDF format on our website and online at ISSUU. We also provide all technical articles as a free download in our article archive on our website.
Reducing the incidents of wildfires through hazard and risk mapping
By Malcolm N Procter
Wildfires in the Free State Province of South Africa are a frequent occurrence and cause considerable disturbance to ecosystems and property. A reliable risk based management strategy to manage wildfire may enhance protection of life, property and the environment. This study utilised the risk formula where:
Hazard × (FDI) × Vulnerability
Risk = -------------------------------------------
Manageability / Capacity
The study represents a first step in an intricate problem. Five years of fire data were obtained from the Meraka Institute at the CSIR. These data were used to calculate probability distribution functions which were used to randomly simulate a series of fire probabilities using an existing empirical and deterministic model. The contribution of fire danger index (FDI), fuel load content and fire intensity was examined. The study included measures taken to increase resilience; thereby reducing vulnerability.
Current approaches to the problem, however, mainly focus on the probability of fire occurrence respectively the expected frequency of wildfires for a time period. Usually, these results are calculated for relatively large regions. Only recently attempts are being made to tackle fire occurrence at a local scale. To get insight in wildfire risk as it is understood here, these methods must be combined with approaches to estimate the impact of wildfires and measures that have been taken to increase resilience. For this reason, the presented framework for wildfire risk assessment integrates fire occurrence modelling with methods for the assessment of fire effects, and elements of resilience, linking the three by tables of consequence for each. Hence, it brings together three major topics of wildfire research that are normally considered more or less isolated.
Knowledge of where the risk from wildfires is the greatest allows one to implement measures to mitigate the problem. Risk management may improve the existing hazard management approach to wildfire management by shifting the focus of management to the asset to be protected. This allows for the consideration of alternative mitigation strategies not considered using pure hazard management. The end result is a spatial map based on a 25km2 grid that indicates graded areas of risk from wildfires within each local municipality in the Free State.
Introduction
South Africa has elected to drive development through local government. This means that sustainable economic, social and natural resources development must be integrated locally and so that it complies with national policies and frameworks.
The Department of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) is administering the National Veld and Forest Fire Act, 1998 (Act No 101 of 1998) (NVFFA) as amended. The NVFFA is currently the primary legislation governing integrated wildfire management in South Africa. It provides for compliance with environmental requirements. It is not an emergency services law, but links natural resource management by property owners collectively or individually to the integrated wildfire management system.
The NVFFA makes provision for establishment of fire protection associations (FPAs). In terms of this legislation, landowners are supposed to carry the “duty of care” responsibility for ignition potential for their lands. For example, it provides for the formation of local, community-based, fire protection associations for collective management of wildfires in respect of areas which have regular wildfires; or a relatively uniform risk of wildfires; or relatively uniform climatic conditions; or relatively uniform types of vegetation. It also sets a duty that “A fire protection association must at least develop and apply a wildfire management strategy for its area”. Further, the Act requires land owners to meet several requirements.
As in most countries with wildfires, the risk can be managed to acceptable levels at acceptable cost, provided a comprehensive approach, based on integrated natural resource management within a proper development planning and management framework, is adopted and applied consistently. This study sets out the methodology used to analyse the locality of the areas most at risk within the Free State Province of South Africa.
Background
The Free State Province covers an area of 129 480km2. Agriculture accounts for 90% of land use. About 57% of the land is used for stock farming, including beef and dairy cattle and sheep and 33% is for crop production, including maize, sorghum, wheat, groundnuts and sunflowers. Approximately 7% of the province is used for settlements and only 1,6% is set aside for formal conservation. Of the remaining area, mining activity occupies about 0,4% of the province. The roads density for the province is approximately one kilometre of road per 472,34 hectare.
The Free State has a wide-ranging topography ranging from escarpment to plains and pans. To the west the land is characterised by flat plains, pans and slightly undulating land. The south is primarily lowlands with hills. To the east the escarpment extends from Lesotho, into low mountains and irregular undulating lowlands with hills. The northern and central portions are marked with undulating land and hills.
The savannahs and grasslands of South Africa and are amongst the most fire prone regions; grasslands biome burns more than any other biome in South Africa and lie in the area that is regarded as high risk areas. The type of burn produced by grassland fires is different to the burning of woodland and forests north of South Africa.
Fire history
This week’s featured Fire and Rescue International magazine article is: Reducing the incidents of wildfires through hazard and risk mapping by Malcolm N Procter (FRI Vol 2 no 3). We will be sharing more technical/research/tactical articles from Fire and Rescue International magazine on a weekly basis with our readers to assist in technology transfer. This will hopefully create an increased awareness, providing you with hands-on advice and guidance. All our magazines are available free of charge in PDF format on our website and online at ISSUU. We also provide all technical articles as a free download in our article archive on our website.
Reducing the incidents of wildfires through hazard and risk mapping
By Malcolm N Procter
Wildfires in the Free State Province of South Africa are a frequent occurrence and cause considerable disturbance to ecosystems and property. A reliable risk based management strategy to manage wildfire may enhance protection of life, property and the environment. This study utilised the risk formula where:
Hazard × (FDI) × Vulnerability
Risk = -------------------------------------------
Manageability / Capacity
The study represents a first step in an intricate problem. Five years of fire data were obtained from the Meraka Institute at the CSIR. These data were used to calculate probability distribution functions which were used to randomly simulate a series of fire probabilities using an existing empirical and deterministic model. The contribution of fire danger index (FDI), fuel load content and fire intensity was examined. The study included measures taken to increase resilience; thereby reducing vulnerability.
Current approaches to the problem, however, mainly focus on the probability of fire occurrence respectively the expected frequency of wildfires for a time period. Usually, these results are calculated for relatively large regions. Only recently attempts are being made to tackle fire occurrence at a local scale. To get insight in wildfire risk as it is understood here, these methods must be combined with approaches to estimate the impact of wildfires and measures that have been taken to increase resilience. For this reason, the presented framework for wildfire risk assessment integrates fire occurrence modelling with methods for the assessment of fire effects, and elements of resilience, linking the three by tables of consequence for each. Hence, it brings together three major topics of wildfire research that are normally considered more or less isolated.
Knowledge of where the risk from wildfires is the greatest allows one to implement measures to mitigate the problem. Risk management may improve the existing hazard management approach to wildfire management by shifting the focus of management to the asset to be protected. This allows for the consideration of alternative mitigation strategies not considered using pure hazard management. The end result is a spatial map based on a 25km2 grid that indicates graded areas of risk from wildfires within each local municipality in the Free State.
Introduction
South Africa has elected to drive development through local government. This means that sustainable economic, social and natural resources development must be integrated locally and so that it complies with national policies and frameworks.
The Department of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) is administering the National Veld and Forest Fire Act, 1998 (Act No 101 of 1998) (NVFFA) as amended. The NVFFA is currently the primary legislation governing integrated wildfire management in South Africa. It provides for compliance with environmental requirements. It is not an emergency services law, but links natural resource management by property owners collectively or individually to the integrated wildfire management system.
The NVFFA makes provision for establishment of fire protection associations (FPAs). In terms of this legislation, landowners are supposed to carry the “duty of care” responsibility for ignition potential for their lands. For example, it provides for the formation of local, community-based, fire protection associations for collective management of wildfires in respect of areas which have regular wildfires; or a relatively uniform risk of wildfires; or relatively uniform climatic conditions; or relatively uniform types of vegetation. It also sets a duty that “A fire protection association must at least develop and apply a wildfire management strategy for its area”. Further, the Act requires land owners to meet several requirements.
As in most countries with wildfires, the risk can be managed to acceptable levels at acceptable cost, provided a comprehensive approach, based on integrated natural resource management within a proper development planning and management framework, is adopted and applied consistently. This study sets out the methodology used to analyse the locality of the areas most at risk within the Free State Province of South Africa.
Background
The Free State Province covers an area of 129 480km2. Agriculture accounts for 90% of land use. About 57% of the land is used for stock farming, including beef and dairy cattle and sheep and 33% is for crop production, including maize, sorghum, wheat, groundnuts and sunflowers. Approximately 7% of the province is used for settlements and only 1,6% is set aside for formal conservation. Of the remaining area, mining activity occupies about 0,4% of the province. The roads density for the province is approximately one kilometre of road per 472,34 hectare.
The Free State has a wide-ranging topography ranging from escarpment to plains and pans. To the west the land is characterised by flat plains, pans and slightly undulating land. The south is primarily lowlands with hills. To the east the escarpment extends from Lesotho, into low mountains and irregular undulating lowlands with hills. The northern and central portions are marked with undulating land and hills.
The savannahs and grasslands of South Africa and are amongst the most fire prone regions; grasslands biome burns more than any other biome in South Africa and lie in the area that is regarded as high risk areas. The type of burn produced by grassland fires is different to the burning of woodland and forests north of South Africa.
Fire history
Graph 1 Average area burnt in the Free State per local municipality
On average 237 000 ha burn annually in the Free State.
Environmental implications
The seventh millennium development goal (MDG) is to ensure environmental sustainability.
The adverse impacts will compromise the country’s ability to meet the MDGs, in particular poverty alleviation, the pursuit of which will be hampered by the loss of livelihoods from fire. The impact of wildfires on the extremely poor cannot be overstated. These people live at the margins of daily survival and are always the most vulnerable, rural settlements (and also some urban ones) in the interface between densely settled land and land carrying high fuel loads – and eking out marginal livelihoods are also among the most vulnerable.
Achieving the millennium development goals and building a safer world in the 21st century is only possible when the world more effectively reduces damage from disasters triggered by natural events.
Why risk management
The basic question is; if there are only limited resources available for doing mitigation work, where would resources best be utilised? Treating high hazard areas, first does not guarantee that a major fire will not occur but it provides the best opportunity for reducing the risks associated with wildfires.
Identifying and quantifying risk is the first and most important step in the risk management process. Without a comprehensive risk analysis, fire management activities will be unstructured, irrespective of available resources. Unidentified risk often goes untreated and can translate into retained losses that have the potential to cripple a community.
A more complete understanding of the full economic, financial and social impacts of disasters in a region also helps to demonstrate the importance of including risk reduction measures in development plans. Implementation of successful risk management will reduce the probability of damaging or undesirable incidents, and minimise damage if they do occur.
Using satellites
The use of both historic fire record and line fault data on the geographic information system (GIS) has proven to be a useful tool in the planning of the annual fire prevention activities.
The science of remote sensing, or observing the Earth from space, started just over 50 years ago with the launching of Sputnik 1 by the former Soviet Union on 4 October 1957. This was the World’s first earth orbiting artificial satellite. The first satellite images of the earth came from the American weather satellite TIROS1 on 1 April 1960. Seventeen years later, the first real-time satellite images was received on Earth from the American KH-11 satellite system. Today, satellites are used for a variety of purposes.
The launching of the Aqua and Terra satellites with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by NASA in 1999 and 2002 provided the world with a tool to be used inter alia in fire tracking. The University of Maryland demonstrated the successful use of this data in the mapping of fires across the globe. When the South African Department of Agriculture purchased the satellite data and a MODIS antenna at Hartbeeshoek in 2003, this fast access to the satellite became a reality.
In addition to the real-time functionality of the system, the history of fires that is accumulated on the system proves to be most valuable. The system permits queries on fires observed for any stated period and these data are used in the planning of vegetation management as well as investigations of line faults or even insurance claims.
Whilst the system proved to be valuable in the fight against fire, it also had some shortcomings. Not all fires could be detected. The weather during the winter months in the interior of South Africa is normally cloudless, but when clouds are present, the fires beneath them are not detected. Some of the smaller, less intense fires are also not detected, especially by the MSG satellite, with its courser spatial resolution. Where a fire is started and extinguished between two overpasses (in the case of MODIS with its lower temporal resolution), it is also not recorded.[1]
Methodology
Understanding fire regimes in Africa is as important as understanding weather patterns and climate, but our knowledge lags far behind. Fire is an integral part of the African terrestrial ecosystems and most land use systems of Africa have evolved with fire.
In order to formulate an idea of how the risks varied across the province, we used the formula:
On average 237 000 ha burn annually in the Free State.
Environmental implications
The seventh millennium development goal (MDG) is to ensure environmental sustainability.
The adverse impacts will compromise the country’s ability to meet the MDGs, in particular poverty alleviation, the pursuit of which will be hampered by the loss of livelihoods from fire. The impact of wildfires on the extremely poor cannot be overstated. These people live at the margins of daily survival and are always the most vulnerable, rural settlements (and also some urban ones) in the interface between densely settled land and land carrying high fuel loads – and eking out marginal livelihoods are also among the most vulnerable.
Achieving the millennium development goals and building a safer world in the 21st century is only possible when the world more effectively reduces damage from disasters triggered by natural events.
Why risk management
The basic question is; if there are only limited resources available for doing mitigation work, where would resources best be utilised? Treating high hazard areas, first does not guarantee that a major fire will not occur but it provides the best opportunity for reducing the risks associated with wildfires.
Identifying and quantifying risk is the first and most important step in the risk management process. Without a comprehensive risk analysis, fire management activities will be unstructured, irrespective of available resources. Unidentified risk often goes untreated and can translate into retained losses that have the potential to cripple a community.
A more complete understanding of the full economic, financial and social impacts of disasters in a region also helps to demonstrate the importance of including risk reduction measures in development plans. Implementation of successful risk management will reduce the probability of damaging or undesirable incidents, and minimise damage if they do occur.
Using satellites
The use of both historic fire record and line fault data on the geographic information system (GIS) has proven to be a useful tool in the planning of the annual fire prevention activities.
The science of remote sensing, or observing the Earth from space, started just over 50 years ago with the launching of Sputnik 1 by the former Soviet Union on 4 October 1957. This was the World’s first earth orbiting artificial satellite. The first satellite images of the earth came from the American weather satellite TIROS1 on 1 April 1960. Seventeen years later, the first real-time satellite images was received on Earth from the American KH-11 satellite system. Today, satellites are used for a variety of purposes.
The launching of the Aqua and Terra satellites with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by NASA in 1999 and 2002 provided the world with a tool to be used inter alia in fire tracking. The University of Maryland demonstrated the successful use of this data in the mapping of fires across the globe. When the South African Department of Agriculture purchased the satellite data and a MODIS antenna at Hartbeeshoek in 2003, this fast access to the satellite became a reality.
In addition to the real-time functionality of the system, the history of fires that is accumulated on the system proves to be most valuable. The system permits queries on fires observed for any stated period and these data are used in the planning of vegetation management as well as investigations of line faults or even insurance claims.
Whilst the system proved to be valuable in the fight against fire, it also had some shortcomings. Not all fires could be detected. The weather during the winter months in the interior of South Africa is normally cloudless, but when clouds are present, the fires beneath them are not detected. Some of the smaller, less intense fires are also not detected, especially by the MSG satellite, with its courser spatial resolution. Where a fire is started and extinguished between two overpasses (in the case of MODIS with its lower temporal resolution), it is also not recorded.[1]
Methodology
Understanding fire regimes in Africa is as important as understanding weather patterns and climate, but our knowledge lags far behind. Fire is an integral part of the African terrestrial ecosystems and most land use systems of Africa have evolved with fire.
In order to formulate an idea of how the risks varied across the province, we used the formula:
Hazard × (FDI) × Vulnerability
Risk = -------------------------------------------
Manageability / Capacity
Risk = -------------------------------------------
Manageability / Capacity
Where:
Risk = Is the expected losses to a community when a hazard event occurs, including lives lost, persons injured, property damaged and economic activities or livelihoods disrupted.
Hazard is the most of either (1) fuel load or (2) incidents of fire (3) “hotspots”.
FDI = unknown elements such as weather (fire danger index)
For purposes of this risk mapping exercise, we set out to produce a static and not a dynamic map and did not factor weather conditions in but merely looked at a worst case scenario.
Vulnerability = social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities.
We used the tables of qualitative measures of consequence (adapted from standards Australia 1999)
Table 1 Qualitative measures of consequence (adapted from Standards Australia, 1999)
Risk = Is the expected losses to a community when a hazard event occurs, including lives lost, persons injured, property damaged and economic activities or livelihoods disrupted.
Hazard is the most of either (1) fuel load or (2) incidents of fire (3) “hotspots”.
FDI = unknown elements such as weather (fire danger index)
For purposes of this risk mapping exercise, we set out to produce a static and not a dynamic map and did not factor weather conditions in but merely looked at a worst case scenario.
Vulnerability = social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities.
We used the tables of qualitative measures of consequence (adapted from standards Australia 1999)
Table 1 Qualitative measures of consequence (adapted from Standards Australia, 1999)
Tables of consequence on manageability and capacity were also developed where each of these sub categories was rated using a simplified table of consequence using values of one to five.
Where:
Manageability = the extent to which institutional arrangements, mitigation measures have been deployed/utilised to reduce the extent of damage (firebreaks, buffer zones, rock outcrops, cultivated lands, roads).
Capacity = ability to respond to the event, including, the extent to which terrain influences the time taken to extinguish a fire, availability of resources and response times (availability of aircraft).
In addition to historical data and GIS analysis, this assessment relied heavily on input provided by fire protection association members as well as local fire brigade professionals. FPA members are familiar with the threats within their areas. Mapping and documenting the areas at risk identified and combining this information with data gathered through GIS analysis, created a more accurate understanding of wildfires risk and provided a rough method of truth-checking GIS outputs.
In order to quantify the relative significance of each of the inputs, weighting values could be assigned that were based on data from theme values in the tables of consequence. We felt that as this assessment was a rapid but subjective process, that weighting separate values would not have a major influence on the calculation. It would have complicated the assessment and our target audience would have understood it less. It was simpler but a less scientific to say “Under the worst case conditions, how long will it take to extinguish a fire in this cell”. Such a statement implied that response times, resources, terrain, accessibility, experience would need to be considered.
Quantifying the incidents of fire
Each year fires as captured by MODIS were represented with differing colours; different symbols were used to denote the fires in and out of the fire season.
In order to give values to the incidents of fire the following guidelines were used to guide the risk assessments.
Repeat incidences of fire:
Tables of consequence simply described the severity of each hazard component in a given area and were rated with values ranging from one to five.
Fuel loads were assessed using a table rated from one to five where 500kg Ha represented one and 3 000 kg plus Ha represented five. These values differed in other provinces but were based on perceived risk within each province). The hazard value was regarded as the greater value of either “hotspots”, repeat incidences of fire as detected by satellites or fuel load. In terms of fuel load “residual fuel load” and not “inherent fuel” load was taken, cultivated lands were regarded as buffer zones. A 70/30 ratio was applied whereby if more than 30% of an area fell in to a higher risk, the higher risk was taken to represent the entire grid block.
Who was involved?When a broad range of appropriate stakeholders are involved in the planning process, the exercise is more likely to address all of the relevant issues and gain greater acceptance from the community. Representatives of local government were invited. Community leaders and individuals with specialised knowledge of the surrounding area attended the sessions to provide information and opinions on the level of fire risk within each local municipality. Fire protection association (FPA) members, who were familiar with the threats within their areas, were able to mark “hotspots” where smaller fires not detected by the satellites had occurred. Approximately 65% of fires are detected.
Information gathered through these sessions was used to map and grade the areas at risk identified. Combining this information with data gathered through GIS analysis, created a more accurate understanding of wildfire risk and provided a method of truth-checking GIS outputs where the repetitive incidents of wildfires posed a threat and the risks posed were the greatest.
Calculating the risk value
Each of the assigned values was recorded on the A3 size maps and thereafter captured in an Excel spread sheet.
The values as calculated were then rated and assigned colour coding was used to denote the areas at risk. These values in the Excel spread sheet were then converted to the attributes table in GIS.
A raster grid of five by five square kilometre was overlaid over maps of each local municipality and for purposes of identification, each cell within the grid was given a unique cell number. Six maps were supplied in A0 size and ten working maps were supplied in A3 size, delegates were requested to colour code each block in terms of hazard, vulnerability, manageability and capacity on the A3 maps.
Map 3: Dihlabeng Local Municipality overlaid with a five by five square kilometre raster grid
Where:
Manageability = the extent to which institutional arrangements, mitigation measures have been deployed/utilised to reduce the extent of damage (firebreaks, buffer zones, rock outcrops, cultivated lands, roads).
Capacity = ability to respond to the event, including, the extent to which terrain influences the time taken to extinguish a fire, availability of resources and response times (availability of aircraft).
In addition to historical data and GIS analysis, this assessment relied heavily on input provided by fire protection association members as well as local fire brigade professionals. FPA members are familiar with the threats within their areas. Mapping and documenting the areas at risk identified and combining this information with data gathered through GIS analysis, created a more accurate understanding of wildfires risk and provided a rough method of truth-checking GIS outputs.
In order to quantify the relative significance of each of the inputs, weighting values could be assigned that were based on data from theme values in the tables of consequence. We felt that as this assessment was a rapid but subjective process, that weighting separate values would not have a major influence on the calculation. It would have complicated the assessment and our target audience would have understood it less. It was simpler but a less scientific to say “Under the worst case conditions, how long will it take to extinguish a fire in this cell”. Such a statement implied that response times, resources, terrain, accessibility, experience would need to be considered.
Quantifying the incidents of fire
Each year fires as captured by MODIS were represented with differing colours; different symbols were used to denote the fires in and out of the fire season.
In order to give values to the incidents of fire the following guidelines were used to guide the risk assessments.
Repeat incidences of fire:
- Hotspots known areas of repetitive fires not always detected by satellites
- Repeat incidences of fires as detected by satellites
Tables of consequence simply described the severity of each hazard component in a given area and were rated with values ranging from one to five.
Fuel loads were assessed using a table rated from one to five where 500kg Ha represented one and 3 000 kg plus Ha represented five. These values differed in other provinces but were based on perceived risk within each province). The hazard value was regarded as the greater value of either “hotspots”, repeat incidences of fire as detected by satellites or fuel load. In terms of fuel load “residual fuel load” and not “inherent fuel” load was taken, cultivated lands were regarded as buffer zones. A 70/30 ratio was applied whereby if more than 30% of an area fell in to a higher risk, the higher risk was taken to represent the entire grid block.
Who was involved?When a broad range of appropriate stakeholders are involved in the planning process, the exercise is more likely to address all of the relevant issues and gain greater acceptance from the community. Representatives of local government were invited. Community leaders and individuals with specialised knowledge of the surrounding area attended the sessions to provide information and opinions on the level of fire risk within each local municipality. Fire protection association (FPA) members, who were familiar with the threats within their areas, were able to mark “hotspots” where smaller fires not detected by the satellites had occurred. Approximately 65% of fires are detected.
Information gathered through these sessions was used to map and grade the areas at risk identified. Combining this information with data gathered through GIS analysis, created a more accurate understanding of wildfire risk and provided a method of truth-checking GIS outputs where the repetitive incidents of wildfires posed a threat and the risks posed were the greatest.
Calculating the risk value
Each of the assigned values was recorded on the A3 size maps and thereafter captured in an Excel spread sheet.
The values as calculated were then rated and assigned colour coding was used to denote the areas at risk. These values in the Excel spread sheet were then converted to the attributes table in GIS.
A raster grid of five by five square kilometre was overlaid over maps of each local municipality and for purposes of identification, each cell within the grid was given a unique cell number. Six maps were supplied in A0 size and ten working maps were supplied in A3 size, delegates were requested to colour code each block in terms of hazard, vulnerability, manageability and capacity on the A3 maps.
Map 3: Dihlabeng Local Municipality overlaid with a five by five square kilometre raster grid
By combining the probability of any area burning with the expected fire effects, a level of risk can be defined, which informs where the likelihood of fires is the greatest, as well as where it will be difficult to suppress. Mapping the location of the most fire prone areas is an important step in the right direction because it will alert land-owners, insurance companies and fire protection associations where the dangers lie and ultimately take steps to remedy the situation.
Table 1 An example from the Setsoto Local Municipality
Table 1 An example from the Setsoto Local Municipality
The number allocated on the left refers to the unique grid no on the maps and refers to locality on the map. The risk value on the right of the table gives an indication of priorities.
The “risk levels” were then categorised to determine whether they fell in to the ultra, extreme, and medium, low or marginal risk categories so that planning could be categorised.
The encapsulation of these results in to an Arc-GIS application provides a technical platform for applying the results in planning and operational decision making.
It is important to have a process that is flexible and consistent over time and space because wildfire risk analysis is a spatio-temporal phenomenon. Also, it is critical to use a proven analytical process based on accepted science to adequately integrate the inputs to the intermediate and fine measures of potential affects.
These results can be used in a variety of ways, including the analysis and planning of mitigation projects such as planning for firebreak density in terms of risk, improving on resources, and improving on detection ability, response times, education and awareness programmes, monitoring of compliance levels as well as monitoring improvements in fire reduction in the area.
Not by itself but risk mapping forms an essential facet of any long term effort to any long term improvements, other educational efforts could involve publicising fire probability maps for local government, developers and land owners. With such a high wildfire incident rate resulting from the actions of people, community education in South Africa is particularly important. Education takes on a number of forms and is generally designed to provide people with a better understanding of the risks they face from wildfires and the measures the community can take to minimise these risks.
Mapping information can also be used by insurance companies to establish accurate risk ratings for properties. Risk ratings can also be used to establish a guide to establish the required density of firebreak requirements in terms of a cost benefit analysis and can also be used in measuring the performance of FPAs as this methodology allows for measurement of improvements within specific areas.
Conclusions
Disasters are inevitable, although we do not always know when and where they will happen. But their worst effects can be partially or completely prevented by preparation, early warning, and swift, decisive responses.
It is possible to reduce both the risk of wildfires and the cost of these disasters when they do occur, through better application of information technology to wildfire management. Wildfire risk analysis should be the very basis of fire management strategies, plans and actions.
Risk analysis can focus fire management interventions more efficiently and effectively it will facilitate response from disaster management and in the event of aerial support being called grid references are pre-identified.
Risk analysis facilitates integrated fire management. GIS based decision-support databases highlight risk levels better than spread sheets and/or narratives the levels of vulnerability can be monitored. Risk analysis allows for simplified assessment of FPAs.
Acknowledgements
Andries Jordaan, University of the Free State: who stimulated my interest in disaster management and encouraged me throughout my studies.
The “risk levels” were then categorised to determine whether they fell in to the ultra, extreme, and medium, low or marginal risk categories so that planning could be categorised.
The encapsulation of these results in to an Arc-GIS application provides a technical platform for applying the results in planning and operational decision making.
- A Geographic Information System (GIS) can define the hazards and risk component on a map of the assessment area, displaying each level of hazard on clear overlays, rather than on a single map allowing one to study various combinations of data.
- A grid index system references specific points of interest on a map. The coordinates of the grid define the hazard rating of a specific area.
- A matrix system describes the severity of each risk for each five by five square kilometre area within the assessment area and by using custom analysis tools FPAs can better evaluate options for mitigation efforts.
It is important to have a process that is flexible and consistent over time and space because wildfire risk analysis is a spatio-temporal phenomenon. Also, it is critical to use a proven analytical process based on accepted science to adequately integrate the inputs to the intermediate and fine measures of potential affects.
These results can be used in a variety of ways, including the analysis and planning of mitigation projects such as planning for firebreak density in terms of risk, improving on resources, and improving on detection ability, response times, education and awareness programmes, monitoring of compliance levels as well as monitoring improvements in fire reduction in the area.
Not by itself but risk mapping forms an essential facet of any long term effort to any long term improvements, other educational efforts could involve publicising fire probability maps for local government, developers and land owners. With such a high wildfire incident rate resulting from the actions of people, community education in South Africa is particularly important. Education takes on a number of forms and is generally designed to provide people with a better understanding of the risks they face from wildfires and the measures the community can take to minimise these risks.
Mapping information can also be used by insurance companies to establish accurate risk ratings for properties. Risk ratings can also be used to establish a guide to establish the required density of firebreak requirements in terms of a cost benefit analysis and can also be used in measuring the performance of FPAs as this methodology allows for measurement of improvements within specific areas.
Conclusions
Disasters are inevitable, although we do not always know when and where they will happen. But their worst effects can be partially or completely prevented by preparation, early warning, and swift, decisive responses.
It is possible to reduce both the risk of wildfires and the cost of these disasters when they do occur, through better application of information technology to wildfire management. Wildfire risk analysis should be the very basis of fire management strategies, plans and actions.
Risk analysis can focus fire management interventions more efficiently and effectively it will facilitate response from disaster management and in the event of aerial support being called grid references are pre-identified.
Risk analysis facilitates integrated fire management. GIS based decision-support databases highlight risk levels better than spread sheets and/or narratives the levels of vulnerability can be monitored. Risk analysis allows for simplified assessment of FPAs.
Acknowledgements
Andries Jordaan, University of the Free State: who stimulated my interest in disaster management and encouraged me throughout my studies.