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8 March 2024
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Featured FRI Magazine article: Climate change is a reality in South Africa. How is this linked to wildfire damage? by Dr Neels de Ronde (FRI Vol 1 no 12)
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https://www.frimedia.org/uploads/1/2/2/7/122743954/fri_vol1no12_lr.pdf
This week’s featured Fire and Rescue International magazine article is: Climate change is a reality in South Africa. How is this linked to wildfire damage? Written by Dr Neels de Ronde (FRI Vol 1 no 12). We will be sharing more technical/research/tactical articles from Fire and Rescue International magazine on a weekly basis with our readers to assist in technology transfer. This will hopefully create an increased awareness, providing you with hands-on advice and guidance. All our magazines are available free of charge in PDF format on our website and online at ISSUU. We also provide all technical articles as a free download in our article archive on our website.
Climate change is a reality in South Africa. How is this linked to wildfire damage? (FRI Vol 1 no 12)
By Dr Neels de Ronde
In the US, a number of scientists have apparently automatically assumed that a general increase in average air temperature (“global warming”) will result in an increase in wildfire damage but it appears that this is an unsubstantiated research approach and at best only partly correct. According to reports, no scientific evidence for this exists to eg determine (i) to which fire behaviour parameters weather variables are positively correlated or (ii) what relationship exists between weather variables and the main biomes in the USA.
I decided to attempt to compare the 2012 South African wildfire events with that in the US, if this was at all possible. Of course, this was a bit of a “wild card” but to my amazement, I already identified some important similarities.
Simultaneously, pro-prescribed-burners in some US States are now seriously advocating that a substantial increase in prescribed burning will be the most effective way to counteract global warming and other climate change effects but according to reports, decision-makers have not yet made up their mind about such a (maybe rather drastic) policy change. Neither does it appear that the weather/fire behaviour parameters are researched seriously with regard to such vital (potential) correlations at biome level. Of course, prescribed burning per sé cannot be very effective without proper region planning and prioritising.
In South Africa (SA), prescribed burning application, as a fuel management measure, is still falling far short of requirements, for various reasons.
As a result, extreme wildfires are still causing havoc with existing firebreak systems, which are still ineffective to say the least.
Another problem with prescribed burning is the application without proper motivation or regional planning, resulting in at best creating nothing more than “prescribed burning islands” in the landscape.
In some of the drier biomes (such as dry savannah) prescribed burning programs are almost non-existing. This subsequently takes authorities completely by surprise when such areas simply “explode” after a decade or more of fire exclusion when extreme wildfires conditions are experienced.
Looking back at the 2012 fire season
With no effective wildfire statistics being kept in South Africa, it was not possible to provide data backed by detailed statistical information but fortunately, the main wildfire events are still fresh in my mind and received some prominent coverage in the local press. As the significant contrasts in fire hazard in this country can basically be drawn across main biome lines, I will shortly discuss the outcome of the 2012 fire season in South Africa, based on these important characteristics of our landscape:
- The fynbos biome in the Cape regions
Decades without effective prescribed burning application in fynbos is now taking its toll. In two major mountain catchments, basically the whole of the burnable fynbos-covered land was burned over within a few days. At a glance, I could not link any of these events to climate change variables but it was clear that the average age of the fynbos was years beyond the optimum fire rotation age to maintain biodiversity. This caused fires to remain uncontrolled until running out of available fuel. In both mega fires experienced, adjoining industrial timber plantations were also burned out but none of these fires started within these fuel sources.
- Montane grassland in the higher rainfall regions of the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga
Where these grasslands occurred in a mixture with industrial plantations, the existing prescribed burning measures, applied in tandem with a mild fire season, paid off so far, with no serious wildfire damage having been reported. However, I must warn against any reduction of these fire prevention measures, as there are still some serious “hotspots” to attend to before the 2013 wildfire season.
In contrast, the eastern Free State again experienced some devastating wildfires during August 2012, when some “out-of-season” extreme weather was experienced.
The lack of prescribed burning and fuel management in general in this region, can be identified as the main cause for these fires.
- Moist savannah in Mpumalanga, eastern North West Province and Limpopo
Particularly in Limpopo, the general lack of prescribed burning application (as part of a fuel management plan) was again taking its toll in (particularly) nature reserves and game farms, with this year also some serious loss of property experienced and even some loss of lives. Integrated fire management plans and related prescribed burning programmes are urgently required in these regions, particularly on game farms, where a complete lack of fire use is common. Elsewhere, no serious fires were reported.
_ Dry savannah of the North West Province, western Free State and Northern Cape Province
This year saw an “explosion of wildfires” in this biome, with at least three wildfire areas exceeding a total of 75 000 hectares. Most of these wildfires occurred during August and November 2012, thus outside the most dangerous fire season (September and October). Although the out-of-season extreme fire hazard conditions might indicate a shift in seasonal pattern, this will have to be determined over longer periods of time and might thus still be a ‘once off’ occurrence.
The complete lack of any dedicated prescribed burning or regular grassland burning as part of a fuel management programme, cause a very serious fire hazard situation, after a number of above-average grassland biomass additions were recorded after good rains.
I tabled my worst fears and the seriousness of the explosive situation as early as during October 2011 already but my warnings were ignored and the results are there for all to see. In one case, a wildfire in the Northern Cape region burned through at least 50 large farms and I believe damage estimates were still being progressed, at the time of writing.
As a result of this disappointing fire season, in terms of area burned over reaching record proportions, despite my continuous warnings and proposals to deviate this looming disaster, no improved fire prevention measures were applied in the region.
Comparing wildfire occurrence during 2012 with that of earlier years
Looking back, I think the main contrasts between SA regions, and thus most probably between biomes, is clear and these can be summarised as follows:
1. In the fynbos biome: It is evident that there is steady increase in area burned over by wildfire, rather than any drastic changes.
2. In montane grassland – higher rainfall areas: I could detect no significant change in wildfire patterns in KZN and Mpumalanga. The eastern Free State, however, saw a steady increase in wildfires experienced, particularly during the past three years.
3. Moist savannah: Areas burned over in Limpopo appear to be increasing dramatically. However, this also appears to be linked to the degree of fuel management applied: The more prescribed burning was applied the less serious wildfires were experienced.
4. Dry savannah: Although most of the (dry) western Free State can probably be regarded as montane grassland with savannah mostly restricted to some higher altitude “koppies”, some mega-wildfires were experienced in this region as well, burning more than 75 000 hectare during 24 hours, in August 2012. In the Northern Cape, the most serious fires occurred during end October and November 2012, exceeding previous yearly wildfire experiences by far.
5. In South Africa as a whole: Although in some regions there was no change in wildfire occurrence, in other areas there was a dramatic increase in areas burned over.
A general comparison between the USA and South Africa, with regard to wildfire occurrence during 2012, compared to earlier years
Although no quantitative comparison will be meaningful, I have extracted a few published reports about wildfires experienced in the US and I compared these with local (South Africa) reports:
“...Wildfires burned more than five million acres in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona combined, in 2011. Wildfires occur more in the west but are not uncommon in the Great Plains and southeast.”
Now this appears to be a similar situation in the drier States of the US, if we compare this to our drier savannah regions but then the first as recorded one year earlier: A sudden “explosion” of wildfires in the drier regions (in the US during 2011 and in SA during 2012).
The area burned over (five million acres) appears to be enormous but if converted to hectares, also considering the much larger size of these States compared to the South African drier regions; it is estimated that both countries experienced a near-similar percentage burned over.
“....As of late October, wildfires had burned nearly nine million acres across the United States in 2012..... about four and a half million acres on average burned each year, from 2002 through 2011 the yearly average was seven million acres.”
These are frightening figures. No wonder there is today a lot of discussion going on in the US about the worsening wildfire situation.
Unfortunately, to my knowledge, such statistical data is not available in South Africa but I am sure similar increases in South Africa (in total are burned over yearly) is the reality of the situation, in terms of percentage area affected by fire. However, there appears to be no concern about this serious increase in fire damage and all I am reading is that “we are winning the fire battle” by means of “dedicated integrated fire management”. I do not have to point out that we have here a “conflict of opinion”.
“…We have not seen wildfire conditions this bad in October in a lifetime.”
In South Africa, “October” could read “August” and “October/November” but otherwise similar reports could be made about the fire season in South Africa, during 2012.
“...several multi-year droughts have worsened fire conditions on the West and Central Plain States over the past decade, extending fire seasons and increasing supplies of dry fuel”.
I cannot comment on this statement referring to the US but in South Africa, we have seen an increase in grassland biomass in the drier regions (in dry savannah and on the Free State plains in particular) as a result of higher-than normal rainfall over the past few years, which resulted in increased dry grass biomass levels. This situation thus points not to climate change but rather to unchecked, continued, grass biomass loading increases over a number of years, rather than drought effects. Also, keep in mind that this comment is only applicable to the dry savannah regions of South Africa, with most probably different situations elsewhere.
How is climate change affecting wildfire occurrence in South Africa?
In the US, emphasis is put on increased air temperatures, leading to drier climatic conditions and subsequent increased occurrence of wildfires.
In my opinion, this is a generalised statement, which is debatable, particularly considering significant contrasts between main vegetation biomes and other varying regional conditions. I can thus not completely agree to this, although there is probably some truth in this.
As in South Africa, too easily the increase in wildfires is just attributed to “climate change” or more particular “global warming” and other factors, such as lack of prescribed burning application and inadequate regional fire prevention measures, are simply ignored.
Here follows a summary of my views:
1. Drier conditions (and droughts) will decrease moisture levels in static fuels such as in shrub lands and forests, including industrial timber plantations and this will subsequently result in increased fire hazard. However, lack of effective fuel management, including absence of prescribed burning, can also result in increased fire hazard and both are equally important to consider.
2. In dynamic fuels (such as montane grassland and savannah), biomass increases are mostly the cause of increased fire hazard and subsequent wildfire increases.
Thus good rainfall years should be watched and not so much the droughty years, as these might indeed result in lower biomass levels.
3. “Out-of-season” or ‘extended seasons’ have been recorded to be more common in both the US as well as in South Africa, causing more fire damage outside the peak fire season and generally finding fire managers off guard and unprepared.
4. In shrub land, such as fynbos, the increase wildfire damage can mainly be attributed to decades of complete fire exclusion rather than to climate change.
5. In dry savannah, a few above average rainfall years after a decade or longer of fire exclusion normally lead to extreme wildfire conditions when least expected.
However, such a situation is not linked to climate change or global warming.
6. In montane grassland, in high rainfall regions, the most effective measure is prescribed burning application to keep accumulating grassland biomass under control and this process has nothing to do with changing climatic factors.
7. In nature reserves and game farms with a savannah grassland fuel base, lack of fuel management, through absence of prescribed burning, normally results in an increase in wildfires and no abnormal weather patterns have been observed to be a significant influencing factor.
Of course, it is also true that the above summary of my personal observations can only be quantified and confirmed by effective research programmes, comparing weather variables with fire behaviour parameters over time. For the interim, however, some determination and mapping of “hotspots” will be required to at least identify the most serious fire hazard areas at a regional level.
Is climate change really increasing fire hazard and areas burned over by wildfire?
In the US there has also been lately some awareness that “climate change” cannot just be regarded as the only reason that wildfires increasing. Let us have a look at some recently publicised statements after the 2012 wildfire season:
“...fire plays an important ecological role and federal land managers are working to reintroduce fire in controlled settings to regenerate combustible bush that can cause wildfires to burn out of control.”
It still appears that the reality for the urgent need for increased fire-use has still not been realised in some regions and certainly not at top fire management level in South Africa.
It is my opinion that this is a far more effective tool to counteract any potential increases in wildfires, provided this is linked to well-motivated integrated fire prevention plans. Below follows another US publications to confirm this:
“…From an ecological perspective, we have too little fire in the landscape. The acres burned today are a tenth of what burned before fire suppression started.”
Another statement that could also easily refer to the South Africa situation reads as follows:
“…Climate change, residential development in fire-prone rural areas and the impact of firefighting policies have combined to put many areas of the United States at risk.”
Although I do not necessarily agree to the “firefighting policies” as an influencing factor because I think this is more referring to natural parks and nature reserves. The first two are true, also in our country.
Before the question of the role of climate change can be answered; if climate change is really affecting wildfire occurrence in South Africa, it is important that we determine how this is determined because I cannot understand why the “air temperature” variable features so prominently in studies abroad. Is the “wind” variable not by far more important in fire behaviour studies?
I asked this question to some of my overseas colleagues and they failed to answer this question to date.
To summarise, YES, I think climate change can have an effect on the occurrence of wildfires but it is by no means the only influencing factor.
Some other influencing factors are (i) unchecked fuel accumulation and linked to this, (ii) a lack of prescribed burning application, today not even making out a fraction of what it should be.
A rethink of the fire hazard status in South Africa and how this can best be counteracted, is in my opinion long overdue. Linked to this, a dedicated research programme should be launched to answer all outstanding questions and to strengthen future decision-making in this regard.
Then, to conclude, I would like to provide a few phrases from an article published by the well-known fire historian Steven Pyne, after the 2012 fire season in the US: “...The decisive issue is not whether our science is good enough but whether our politics is” and “....We renegotiate the political behind American fire.
Or we continue as we have been, unable to do more than chase ever-worsening fires with ever-dwindling options.”
Does this sound familiar?
I have no further comments.
This week’s featured Fire and Rescue International magazine article is: Climate change is a reality in South Africa. How is this linked to wildfire damage? Written by Dr Neels de Ronde (FRI Vol 1 no 12). We will be sharing more technical/research/tactical articles from Fire and Rescue International magazine on a weekly basis with our readers to assist in technology transfer. This will hopefully create an increased awareness, providing you with hands-on advice and guidance. All our magazines are available free of charge in PDF format on our website and online at ISSUU. We also provide all technical articles as a free download in our article archive on our website.
Climate change is a reality in South Africa. How is this linked to wildfire damage? (FRI Vol 1 no 12)
By Dr Neels de Ronde
In the US, a number of scientists have apparently automatically assumed that a general increase in average air temperature (“global warming”) will result in an increase in wildfire damage but it appears that this is an unsubstantiated research approach and at best only partly correct. According to reports, no scientific evidence for this exists to eg determine (i) to which fire behaviour parameters weather variables are positively correlated or (ii) what relationship exists between weather variables and the main biomes in the USA.
I decided to attempt to compare the 2012 South African wildfire events with that in the US, if this was at all possible. Of course, this was a bit of a “wild card” but to my amazement, I already identified some important similarities.
Simultaneously, pro-prescribed-burners in some US States are now seriously advocating that a substantial increase in prescribed burning will be the most effective way to counteract global warming and other climate change effects but according to reports, decision-makers have not yet made up their mind about such a (maybe rather drastic) policy change. Neither does it appear that the weather/fire behaviour parameters are researched seriously with regard to such vital (potential) correlations at biome level. Of course, prescribed burning per sé cannot be very effective without proper region planning and prioritising.
In South Africa (SA), prescribed burning application, as a fuel management measure, is still falling far short of requirements, for various reasons.
As a result, extreme wildfires are still causing havoc with existing firebreak systems, which are still ineffective to say the least.
Another problem with prescribed burning is the application without proper motivation or regional planning, resulting in at best creating nothing more than “prescribed burning islands” in the landscape.
In some of the drier biomes (such as dry savannah) prescribed burning programs are almost non-existing. This subsequently takes authorities completely by surprise when such areas simply “explode” after a decade or more of fire exclusion when extreme wildfires conditions are experienced.
Looking back at the 2012 fire season
With no effective wildfire statistics being kept in South Africa, it was not possible to provide data backed by detailed statistical information but fortunately, the main wildfire events are still fresh in my mind and received some prominent coverage in the local press. As the significant contrasts in fire hazard in this country can basically be drawn across main biome lines, I will shortly discuss the outcome of the 2012 fire season in South Africa, based on these important characteristics of our landscape:
- The fynbos biome in the Cape regions
Decades without effective prescribed burning application in fynbos is now taking its toll. In two major mountain catchments, basically the whole of the burnable fynbos-covered land was burned over within a few days. At a glance, I could not link any of these events to climate change variables but it was clear that the average age of the fynbos was years beyond the optimum fire rotation age to maintain biodiversity. This caused fires to remain uncontrolled until running out of available fuel. In both mega fires experienced, adjoining industrial timber plantations were also burned out but none of these fires started within these fuel sources.
- Montane grassland in the higher rainfall regions of the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga
Where these grasslands occurred in a mixture with industrial plantations, the existing prescribed burning measures, applied in tandem with a mild fire season, paid off so far, with no serious wildfire damage having been reported. However, I must warn against any reduction of these fire prevention measures, as there are still some serious “hotspots” to attend to before the 2013 wildfire season.
In contrast, the eastern Free State again experienced some devastating wildfires during August 2012, when some “out-of-season” extreme weather was experienced.
The lack of prescribed burning and fuel management in general in this region, can be identified as the main cause for these fires.
- Moist savannah in Mpumalanga, eastern North West Province and Limpopo
Particularly in Limpopo, the general lack of prescribed burning application (as part of a fuel management plan) was again taking its toll in (particularly) nature reserves and game farms, with this year also some serious loss of property experienced and even some loss of lives. Integrated fire management plans and related prescribed burning programmes are urgently required in these regions, particularly on game farms, where a complete lack of fire use is common. Elsewhere, no serious fires were reported.
_ Dry savannah of the North West Province, western Free State and Northern Cape Province
This year saw an “explosion of wildfires” in this biome, with at least three wildfire areas exceeding a total of 75 000 hectares. Most of these wildfires occurred during August and November 2012, thus outside the most dangerous fire season (September and October). Although the out-of-season extreme fire hazard conditions might indicate a shift in seasonal pattern, this will have to be determined over longer periods of time and might thus still be a ‘once off’ occurrence.
The complete lack of any dedicated prescribed burning or regular grassland burning as part of a fuel management programme, cause a very serious fire hazard situation, after a number of above-average grassland biomass additions were recorded after good rains.
I tabled my worst fears and the seriousness of the explosive situation as early as during October 2011 already but my warnings were ignored and the results are there for all to see. In one case, a wildfire in the Northern Cape region burned through at least 50 large farms and I believe damage estimates were still being progressed, at the time of writing.
As a result of this disappointing fire season, in terms of area burned over reaching record proportions, despite my continuous warnings and proposals to deviate this looming disaster, no improved fire prevention measures were applied in the region.
Comparing wildfire occurrence during 2012 with that of earlier years
Looking back, I think the main contrasts between SA regions, and thus most probably between biomes, is clear and these can be summarised as follows:
1. In the fynbos biome: It is evident that there is steady increase in area burned over by wildfire, rather than any drastic changes.
2. In montane grassland – higher rainfall areas: I could detect no significant change in wildfire patterns in KZN and Mpumalanga. The eastern Free State, however, saw a steady increase in wildfires experienced, particularly during the past three years.
3. Moist savannah: Areas burned over in Limpopo appear to be increasing dramatically. However, this also appears to be linked to the degree of fuel management applied: The more prescribed burning was applied the less serious wildfires were experienced.
4. Dry savannah: Although most of the (dry) western Free State can probably be regarded as montane grassland with savannah mostly restricted to some higher altitude “koppies”, some mega-wildfires were experienced in this region as well, burning more than 75 000 hectare during 24 hours, in August 2012. In the Northern Cape, the most serious fires occurred during end October and November 2012, exceeding previous yearly wildfire experiences by far.
5. In South Africa as a whole: Although in some regions there was no change in wildfire occurrence, in other areas there was a dramatic increase in areas burned over.
A general comparison between the USA and South Africa, with regard to wildfire occurrence during 2012, compared to earlier years
Although no quantitative comparison will be meaningful, I have extracted a few published reports about wildfires experienced in the US and I compared these with local (South Africa) reports:
“...Wildfires burned more than five million acres in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona combined, in 2011. Wildfires occur more in the west but are not uncommon in the Great Plains and southeast.”
Now this appears to be a similar situation in the drier States of the US, if we compare this to our drier savannah regions but then the first as recorded one year earlier: A sudden “explosion” of wildfires in the drier regions (in the US during 2011 and in SA during 2012).
The area burned over (five million acres) appears to be enormous but if converted to hectares, also considering the much larger size of these States compared to the South African drier regions; it is estimated that both countries experienced a near-similar percentage burned over.
“....As of late October, wildfires had burned nearly nine million acres across the United States in 2012..... about four and a half million acres on average burned each year, from 2002 through 2011 the yearly average was seven million acres.”
These are frightening figures. No wonder there is today a lot of discussion going on in the US about the worsening wildfire situation.
Unfortunately, to my knowledge, such statistical data is not available in South Africa but I am sure similar increases in South Africa (in total are burned over yearly) is the reality of the situation, in terms of percentage area affected by fire. However, there appears to be no concern about this serious increase in fire damage and all I am reading is that “we are winning the fire battle” by means of “dedicated integrated fire management”. I do not have to point out that we have here a “conflict of opinion”.
“…We have not seen wildfire conditions this bad in October in a lifetime.”
In South Africa, “October” could read “August” and “October/November” but otherwise similar reports could be made about the fire season in South Africa, during 2012.
“...several multi-year droughts have worsened fire conditions on the West and Central Plain States over the past decade, extending fire seasons and increasing supplies of dry fuel”.
I cannot comment on this statement referring to the US but in South Africa, we have seen an increase in grassland biomass in the drier regions (in dry savannah and on the Free State plains in particular) as a result of higher-than normal rainfall over the past few years, which resulted in increased dry grass biomass levels. This situation thus points not to climate change but rather to unchecked, continued, grass biomass loading increases over a number of years, rather than drought effects. Also, keep in mind that this comment is only applicable to the dry savannah regions of South Africa, with most probably different situations elsewhere.
How is climate change affecting wildfire occurrence in South Africa?
In the US, emphasis is put on increased air temperatures, leading to drier climatic conditions and subsequent increased occurrence of wildfires.
In my opinion, this is a generalised statement, which is debatable, particularly considering significant contrasts between main vegetation biomes and other varying regional conditions. I can thus not completely agree to this, although there is probably some truth in this.
As in South Africa, too easily the increase in wildfires is just attributed to “climate change” or more particular “global warming” and other factors, such as lack of prescribed burning application and inadequate regional fire prevention measures, are simply ignored.
Here follows a summary of my views:
1. Drier conditions (and droughts) will decrease moisture levels in static fuels such as in shrub lands and forests, including industrial timber plantations and this will subsequently result in increased fire hazard. However, lack of effective fuel management, including absence of prescribed burning, can also result in increased fire hazard and both are equally important to consider.
2. In dynamic fuels (such as montane grassland and savannah), biomass increases are mostly the cause of increased fire hazard and subsequent wildfire increases.
Thus good rainfall years should be watched and not so much the droughty years, as these might indeed result in lower biomass levels.
3. “Out-of-season” or ‘extended seasons’ have been recorded to be more common in both the US as well as in South Africa, causing more fire damage outside the peak fire season and generally finding fire managers off guard and unprepared.
4. In shrub land, such as fynbos, the increase wildfire damage can mainly be attributed to decades of complete fire exclusion rather than to climate change.
5. In dry savannah, a few above average rainfall years after a decade or longer of fire exclusion normally lead to extreme wildfire conditions when least expected.
However, such a situation is not linked to climate change or global warming.
6. In montane grassland, in high rainfall regions, the most effective measure is prescribed burning application to keep accumulating grassland biomass under control and this process has nothing to do with changing climatic factors.
7. In nature reserves and game farms with a savannah grassland fuel base, lack of fuel management, through absence of prescribed burning, normally results in an increase in wildfires and no abnormal weather patterns have been observed to be a significant influencing factor.
Of course, it is also true that the above summary of my personal observations can only be quantified and confirmed by effective research programmes, comparing weather variables with fire behaviour parameters over time. For the interim, however, some determination and mapping of “hotspots” will be required to at least identify the most serious fire hazard areas at a regional level.
Is climate change really increasing fire hazard and areas burned over by wildfire?
In the US there has also been lately some awareness that “climate change” cannot just be regarded as the only reason that wildfires increasing. Let us have a look at some recently publicised statements after the 2012 wildfire season:
“...fire plays an important ecological role and federal land managers are working to reintroduce fire in controlled settings to regenerate combustible bush that can cause wildfires to burn out of control.”
It still appears that the reality for the urgent need for increased fire-use has still not been realised in some regions and certainly not at top fire management level in South Africa.
It is my opinion that this is a far more effective tool to counteract any potential increases in wildfires, provided this is linked to well-motivated integrated fire prevention plans. Below follows another US publications to confirm this:
“…From an ecological perspective, we have too little fire in the landscape. The acres burned today are a tenth of what burned before fire suppression started.”
Another statement that could also easily refer to the South Africa situation reads as follows:
“…Climate change, residential development in fire-prone rural areas and the impact of firefighting policies have combined to put many areas of the United States at risk.”
Although I do not necessarily agree to the “firefighting policies” as an influencing factor because I think this is more referring to natural parks and nature reserves. The first two are true, also in our country.
Before the question of the role of climate change can be answered; if climate change is really affecting wildfire occurrence in South Africa, it is important that we determine how this is determined because I cannot understand why the “air temperature” variable features so prominently in studies abroad. Is the “wind” variable not by far more important in fire behaviour studies?
I asked this question to some of my overseas colleagues and they failed to answer this question to date.
To summarise, YES, I think climate change can have an effect on the occurrence of wildfires but it is by no means the only influencing factor.
Some other influencing factors are (i) unchecked fuel accumulation and linked to this, (ii) a lack of prescribed burning application, today not even making out a fraction of what it should be.
A rethink of the fire hazard status in South Africa and how this can best be counteracted, is in my opinion long overdue. Linked to this, a dedicated research programme should be launched to answer all outstanding questions and to strengthen future decision-making in this regard.
Then, to conclude, I would like to provide a few phrases from an article published by the well-known fire historian Steven Pyne, after the 2012 fire season in the US: “...The decisive issue is not whether our science is good enough but whether our politics is” and “....We renegotiate the political behind American fire.
Or we continue as we have been, unable to do more than chase ever-worsening fires with ever-dwindling options.”
Does this sound familiar?
I have no further comments.